As Argentinians wait for the October presidential elections, the business community expects the peso to fluctuate. As presumed, the main challenger against President Macri is candidate Cristina Kirchner. Actual contestants will undoubtedly come to light on June 22 when the relevant parties will present their candidates. Inflation and economic growth will be Macri’s determinants of going forward.
The Declining Exchange Rate of the Peso
So far, economic expectations are for inflation and peso to stay in check as per the agreement. Up to now, the peso is weaker than the Turkish lire. For the last one year, the peso has lost one hundred percent of its worth against the dollar, rendering it the weakest rising market currency. Investors are pleased since they believe they are reaping enormously for risking investment in both long-term and short-term local money. However, it is contingent upon the central bank’s capability to regulate inflation and inhibit the peso from weakening to fifty. Currently, it is at forty-one compared to the dollar.
IMF and Central Bank Intervention
The IMF approved the central bank‘s sixty million daily currency auctions to reduce the number of pesos in the market from mid-April. The only condition was that the currency to always escalate than the central bank’s non-involvement target rate. This requirement avoids extreme purchases of pesos by the central bank to improve the money. The move will inspire exporters to liquidate their sales and, at the same time, hinder huge peso sales by external investors. Additionally, the bank has endorsed the smaller rate of the forex trading at 1.75% monthly in the second quarter. This figure is lower compared to two percent of the first quarter. The forex ratio should gain from obligation to a limiting monetary policy with bank endorsing the zero economic base. It restricts against additional printing of peso throughout the year 2019.